Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA- Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu

Abstract

Urban expansion possesses significant negative impacts on the environment, particularly in forest areas worldwide. This study aimed to analyze urban expansion by using stochastic modeling with the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in Mettu area, Ethiopia. The Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2021 were used. The results reveal built-up areas gained 27.2%, of which cropland and forest accounted for 11.4 and 6.4%, respectively, within the 1986–2021 period. Despite the potential decline in urban growth rates, the model revealed that the spatial extent

will likely expand twofold before the 2040s. In the rapid develop- ment (RD) scenario, urban development due to population

increase will occur, which is also prevalent in the proposed suit- able urban expansion (PSUE) scenario, but the ecological and eco- nomic protection (EEP) scenario reveals very limited. The findings

of this study will have far-reaching impacts on ecological and eco- nomic livelihoods unless green economy principles are effectively

implemented.